Published & Forthcoming
with Lawrence E. Blume, Steven N. Durlauf, and Aleksandra Lukina
Forthcoming, Sociological Methods & Research
This paper proposes some new measures of intergenerational persistence based on the idea of characterizing the memory of origin in the stochastic process that links the socioeconomic classes of parents and children. We introduce "memory curves" for all future generations given any initial condition of class for a family dynasty, which reveal how initial conditions interact with the transition process between parents and children to create mobility and persistence. We also propose ways to aggregate information across different classes to produce overall characterizations of mobility in the population. To illustrate our measures, we estimate occupational "memory curves" using U.S. survey data. Our findings show that, on average, the memory of initial conditions dissipates largely within three generations, though there is meaningful heterogeneity in mobility rates across dynasties originating from different occupational classes.Working Papers
Multiple Program Participation: Incidence and Impacts from Reducing Administrative Burdens
with Derek Wu
(Draft coming soon)
Multiple program participation is a defining yet understudied aspect of the U.S. social safety net. Using linked administrative records from Virginia, we document that half of program recipients received benefits from two or more programs, 80% of whom are in households with children. Despite this, the take-up of multiple programs remains incomplete, particularly among those farther from their assigned field office. We examine the impacts of a technological reform that streamlined applications for multiple programs (primarily SNAP, Medicaid, and TANF) through a centralized online platform. We develop an empirical framework that uses difference-in-differences and regression discontinuity designs to identify the reform’s total effect, distinguishing between impediments to accessing programs based on distance to field office. Overall, the reform increased multiple program participation by nearly 5%. The consideration of multiple programs carries important implications for understanding targeting efficiency and for welfare evaluation. We find that a meaningful share of effects were driven by transitions from single to multiple program receipt—a margin that would be missed if studying programs in isolation. These intensive-margin responders were also more disadvantaged (with lower labor market attachment and greater criminal justice involvement) than either extensive-margin responders or baseline recipients. Moreover, the Marginal Value of Public Funds of the reform could be understated by up to 64% or overstated by up to 25% if evaluated based on changes to a single program alone.Understanding the Heterogeneity of Intergenerational Mobility across Neighborhoods
with Steven N. Durlauf, Rasmus Landersø, and Salvador Navarro
First version: October 2024 (NBER). This version: March 2025.
Recent research shows significant variation in intergenerational mobility across neighborhoods in many countries, yet its causes remain unclear. This paper develops and employs a generalized mobility model to assess the roles of family selection into neighborhoods and locational characteristics in shaping this heterogeneity. Using Danish administrative data, we analyze mobility across nearly 300 larger and 2,000 smaller neighborhoods, accounting for sampling error. Family selection and sampling error explain most variation, though a small, persistent residual remains. An analysis of this "irreducible heterogeneity" suggests the presence of multiple neighborhood types and nonlinear effects of family characteristics that influence intergenerational mobility.Does "Welfare-to-Work" Work? Evaluating Long-Run Effects across a Generation of Cohorts
First Version: May 2024. This version: April 2025.
Winner of APPAM PhD Dissertation Award, Runner-up of NTA Outstanding Doctoral Dissertation Award, Finalist of W.E. Upjohn Institute Dissertation Award
Work requirements in welfare programs are popular yet controversial. This paper provides a unified evaluation of Denmark’s "welfare-to-work" reforms by analyzing their long-term effects across 19 birth cohorts. Impacts vary by age of exposure to the reforms. Adult cohorts incur modest income losses and shift toward crime and disability insurance. In contrast, child cohorts exposed before becoming welfare-eligible reap gains in education, income, and health, likely due to parental spillovers and anticipation effects. Cost-benefit analysis shows welfare-to-work is cost-effective in the long run due to these younger cohorts. These findings help unify the literature and suggest more efficient policy designs.Book Chapter
with Steven N. Durlauf
This version: February 2022
Prepared for The Inequality Reader, Fifth Edition, D. Grusky, N. Dahir and C. Daviss, eds.
This essay reviews the theory and empirics of intergenerational mobility. Our review draws on models and empirical analyses of classic and more recent work from both economics and sociology. We summarize models and the surrounding empirical evidence of two key sets of mechanisms: family factors (income, education, credit constraints, household composition, and genes) and social factors (schools, neighborhood sorting, racial segregation, and peer and role model effects). We then discuss and evaluate current methods used to measure intergenerational mobility, including linear regressions and Markov chains. Theoretical models imply nonlinear relationships between parent and child status that are often ignored in practice and offer potentially different interpretations of the evidence of heterogeneity in mobility across locations, groups, and time. We conclude that the next generation of studies would benefit from a closer integration of theory with empirics.Works in Progress
Long-Run Impacts of a Two-Generation Approach to Social Policy at Scale
The Effects of Participating in Multiple Safety Net Programs on Family Well-Being
with Derek Wu
Intergenerational Bottlenecks
with Joshua Shea